Lock of the week replied by mvguy @ Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:30:18 -0000

mvguy — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 19:30:18 -0000

Not quite a lock, but in Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Idaho in 2008? the chance that Jim Risch, now at 80 percent, will win the race are (in my opinion) much higher than that Barack Obama will win his, and in most markets he’s going at around 93 percent (which I think is about 20 points too high, but that’s a whole other subject).

There are some true locks in my Which movies from Labor Day through Christmas 2008 will rank in the U.S. top 10 in terms of opening-week U.S. box-office receipts? market if you have enough cash on hand to sell multiple films short. Right now, there are 19 films whose shares are selling for $40 or more, yet of those only 10 will cash out at $100. Buy one share of each of them and you’ll approximately double your money by the end of the year, guaranteed.

And while they aren’t true locks, you could make smaller amounts of money by selling short those films on the bottom of the list and are nearly certain not to be blockbusters, and you won’t have to wait until the end of the year to collect your winnings. In my opinion, the chance that any of them priced at $10 or below will make the top 10 are extremely remote. No guarantees, though.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sat, 11 Oct 2008 20:00:55 -0000

wstritt — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 20:00:55 -0000

This one is pretty much a lock.

Will the Michigan Wolverines football team play in a bowl game following the 2008 season?

In order to be eligible for a bowl game, Michigan needs at least 6 wins. After today’s loss to Toledo (to Toledo???), Michigan sports a 2-4 record with six games left to play.

Michigan’s remaining schedule is not very conducive to winning 4 more games. Three of the games are against currently ranked teams: Ohio State (5-1), Michigan State (5-1) and Penn State (6-0). Two of the remaining three, Northwestern (5-0) and Minnesota (5-1), do not appear to be pushovers either. Purdue (2-3) looks like the only potential soft spot remaining.

What are the chances of Michigan picking up 4 wins against that schedule. Zero, in my humble opinion. “yes” is trading ~64 as I write (after I took it down from around 85).

Though not a complete lock, looks like 64 free inkles to me.

Also, by the way, the chances of Michigan winning 7 or more games (currently trading ~19 in How many regular season football games will Michigan win in 2008?) is pretty much Zero as well.

Finally, still some Inkles to be had on at least the previous 3 posts.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:50:25 -0000

wstritt — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 01:50:25 -0000

See the previous two posts for a couple of true locks.

However, while this one isn’t a “lock” given market volatility, it is grossly mispriced:

Which of the following indices will perform best in 2008?

Through today, everything other than the 10 Year Treasury Note (which is trading ~18 inkles) is down 25-45%+ for the year. The MSCI Emerging Market Index, currently trading at ~16, is down 46% YTD. Absent a miracle recovery in the markets, the 10 Year Treasury looks like a winner – it is, at a minimum, grossly underpriced. Of course, markets could change.

Note – I do hold a long position in the 10 year Treasury taking it up from 11 to 18. I don’t intend to sell it unless the markets stage a massive recovery.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by ajtaylor @ Mon, 06 Oct 2008 01:49:43 -0000

ajtaylor — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 01:49:43 -0000

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/160
Who will be the democratic nominee for presidential elections in 2008?
i heard somewhere that some dude with a funny name was the nominee. i think it’s time to cash it out.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:23:56 -0000

wstritt — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:23:56 -0000

A quick update on markets first noted on March 28th. At current count, there are 4 markets relating to results of the current Formula 1 season which has only 3 races remaining: Japan 10/12, Shanghai 10/19, San Paulo 11/2.

Who will win the 2008 Formula 1 Drivers World Championship?
Who will win the 2008 formula one season?
Who will win the Formula 1 World Championship 2008?
Will Kimi Raikkonen win the F1 driver championship 2008?

For purposes of determining the winning driver, points are scored 10 for a first place finish, 8 for second, 6 for third, 5 for fourth, 4 for fifth, 3 for sixth, 2 for seventh and 1 for eighth.

With only three races remaining and 30 points left to be had, the current leader and drivers within 30 points of him are:

Lewis Hamilton – 84points
Felipe Massa – 77
Robert Kubica – 64
Kimi Raikkonen – 57
Nick Heidfeld – 56

Absent Hamilton not showing up, the only driver that has any realistic shot at catching him is Massa with Kubica being a real longshot at passing both Hamilton and Massa.

Depending on the market, Raikkonen is trading anywhere from 5 to 7 inkles, Heidfeld around 1 and, surprisingly, “everyone else” from 4 to 6 (adding up the shorts). All of these should be considered locks for shorts and will probably be eliminated after the next race so perhaps a 10/12 cash out.

Kubica is trading from 5 to 8 inkles and could easily be eliminated on 10/12 as well.

Also – See update to 9/28 post above.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:11:43 -0000

wstritt — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 14:11:43 -0000

Who will be the MLS Western Division point leader going into the playoffs

With only 4 regular season games remaining so only 12 points available if a team wins them all, seems pretty unlikely that LA (8 inkles) and San Jose (3 inkles) with 29 points will catch Houston at 40 points (who has 5 games remaining including tonight). Ditto on Dallas (6.5 inkles) with 30 points.

All three are pretty much “Locks” for 0 payout so 17 inkles available on a “short”. Remember, with a single answer multiple choice market, multiple shorts tie up the same number of inkles as a single short (though you need to have enough “free” inkles to execute each trade).

Could be a quick payout as well depending on what happens tonight and next weekend and if the market creator promptly cashes out dead stocks.

10/5 update: In the Eastern division – Who will be the MLS Eastern Division point leader going into the playoffs? – with three games remaining, Columbus Crew (trading at 82) appears to be a lock to be the East Division leader. Only team with shot of catching them is Chicago who has 4 games remaining (including tonight) and trails by 12 points. Best case for Chicago is Columbus loses their remaining games while Chigao wins out. Not Likely. I declare Columbus a Lock.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sat, 27 Sep 2008 13:27:14 -0000

wstritt — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 13:27:14 -0000

When will scientists at the LHC claim definitive discovery/evidence of the Higgs Boson?

Well, the LHC has suffered some minor mishaps and won’t be restarted until Spring 2009.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-10049188-76.html

May 1 2008 – October 31 2008 is trading at 14 and seems like a Lock to pay off at 0 at the end of next month.

Given timing of restart, seems likely that November 1 2008 – March 31 2009 is a 0 pay out as well. Currently the top stock at ~36.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by foobar @ Fri, 26 Sep 2008 22:06:36 -0000

foobar — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 22:06:36 -0000

Emailed market creator and did not receive a response.

This market can be closed out now
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/8478
The Chicago Cubs have won over 95 games.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by foobar @ Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:34:32 -0000

foobar — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 17:34:32 -0000

This market can be closed out now
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/8478
The Chicago Cubs have won over 95 games.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sun, 21 Sep 2008 02:20:19 -0000

wstritt — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 02:20:19 -0000

Not quite a lock but close to it. And a relatively large near term payout available.

Who will save more games for their respective Chicago Baseball team in 2008?

As of the end of play on September 20, Kerry Wood has 32 saves versus 28 for Bobby Jenks. Cubs have 9 games left for Wood to pick up more. Sox only have 8 games left for Jenks to pick up 4 saves to tie assuming Wood gets no more. Strikes me as a long shot. Wood is trading at ~70.

Market closes October 4th so that is worst case cash out however answer will certainly be known before then so perhaps sooner.

I already have a long position in Wood and am trying to kick the habit and not trade this further. However, if it is still around in a week, I will buy it well into the 90’s

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Mon, 15 Sep 2008 01:14:50 -0000

wstritt — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 01:14:50 -0000

Two things:

Short term:

Will O.J. Simpson be found guilty of one or more felonies at his September/October 2008 trial in Las Vegas? is currently trading around 73.

Is OJ Finally Going To Do Time? is currently trading around 59.

I suppose there is some chance that he is convicted of a felony but given community service rather than jail time but other than that possibility, 14 free inkles available.

Longer term:

Will MINI outsell HUMMER in 2008?

Closes 1/8/09 and final 2008 stats may not be out for a couple weeks after but: Duh…......

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:48:54 -0000

wstritt — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:48:54 -0000

Another of my markets. By how many saves will Francisco Rodriguez break the MLB single season save record in 2008?

K-Rod earned his 56th save of the year against the Yankees today (9/10). One more and he ties the all time record. Angels have 17 games left to play. Though they have clinched and may be inclined to rest him, one would think they would give him every opportunity to tie and/or break the record. “Doesn’t break or tie” currently trading around 10. Enough said.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Tue, 09 Sep 2008 02:15:46 -0000

wstritt — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 02:15:46 -0000

This is a market I created so I can’t trade it. Also, I don’t have a “lock” per se however it is a “lock” that at least one stock per week in How many games will the Miami Dolphins win in the 2008 regular season? will be closed out at 0 until the last 2 games of the season so there is a lock on payout of a short weekly. No one took advantage of it week 1 though it appears that some trading in the 2 likely 0 stocks has since taken place. Still, something worth passing on.

Since I do not suspend trading during the games, it is also an opportunity to trade as the game progresses and outcome (i.e. likely 0 cash out stock) is known and, thus, a lock. I would also point out THIS IS THE DOLPHINS FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out at least a couple of 0 cashouts though one may have to wait a week to two for satisfaction. I’d also note that once one stock has been shorted, it doesn’t tie up more inkles to short another (though it would tie up the amount for longer) since this is a single outcome multiple choice market.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by wstritt @ Fri, 05 Sep 2008 02:29:10 -0000

wstritt — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 02:29:10 -0000

mvguy is correct,Will the Dow Jones be up for the week ending 8/29 should have been cashed out at 0. While the Dow (at least what most people refer to as “the Dow”: the Dow Jones Insudtrial Average) was up as of the close of trading (both NYSE and Inkling) on Thursday 8/28, the Dow was down for the week ended 8/29. Per http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event… close on 8/22 was 11,628.06 while close on 8/29 was 11,543.55 for a decline of ~ 80 points for the week ended 8/29 which was the question posed by the market. On the off chance that “the Dow” was intended to refer to the Dow Composite rather than the more commonly expected Dow Industrials, it also was down on the week by 6 points.

While you are at it http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/46960/tra… should be cashed out at 0. Oylmpiakos did not make it to the next round of the Champions League having been eliminated by Anorthosis Famagusta FC.

Article on Match

Results of third qualifying round

No response from market creator there either.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by mvguy @ Thu, 04 Sep 2008 20:02:48 -0000

mvguy — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 20:02:48 -0000

Here’s a market that was cashed out both prematurely and incorrectly:

Will the Dow Jones be up for the week ending 8/29?

I have been unsuccessful in my attempts to contact the market owner.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by foobar @ Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:51:51 -0000

foobar — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:51:51 -0000

Please cash out:
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10004

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by foobar @ Fri, 29 Aug 2008 21:21:18 -0000

foobar — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 21:21:18 -0000

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10004
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/13110

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:01:25 -0000

wstritt — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:01:25 -0000

Haven’t done this in a while but this market has plenty of opportunities for free inkles.

Which teams will play in the 2008 World Series?

At the moment, the 5 AL teams add up to ~199 and only 1 will pay out at 100. Short them all and make 99 inkles for 500 tied up. The 6 NL teams add up to ~211. Short them all and make 111 inkles for 600 tied up. Short everything including other and make 224 inkles for 1200 tied up.

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:41:21 -0000

wstritt — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:41:21 -0000

Will Joe Lieberman speak at the 2008 Republican National Convention?

MSNBC reports: “Sen. Joe Lieberman to speak at GOP convention”

Market will not close until he actually speaks so barring some unforseen circumstance, with “Yes” trading at ~86 Inkles, 14 Inkles left to be had.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by acollard @ Sun, 10 Aug 2008 13:22:37 -0000

acollard — Sun, 10 Aug 2008 13:22:37 -0000

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/6757

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:32:13 -0000

wstritt — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:32:13 -0000

Very boring but with Farve traded to Jets and Pennington released, “One” is a lock to cash out at 0 in this market:

How many NFL teams will have new starting QBs in 2008?

That would be a lock for 3.5 inkles. I haven’t followed it that closely but I would imagine there is a decent chance that several other of these stocks are pretty much locks as well if one chose to do a little research.

Lock of the week replied by mvguy @ Sun, 27 Jul 2008 15:13:50 -0000

mvguy — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 15:13:50 -0000

This isn’t quite a lock, but despite some ambiguities involved there could be a lot of inkles still to be made in this market in the next few days:

Will there be another attack targeting civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan in the next six months?

Before you invest any inkles in this, you’d probably be best off reading the discussion first.

Disclaimer: I have beaucoup inkles in this market right now, more than really care to risk.

Market not cashed out when it should be replied by foobar @ Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:22:46 -0000

foobar — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:22:46 -0000

This market can be cashed out:
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/18105/tra…

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:46:33 -0000

wstritt — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:46:33 -0000

Update on:

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten?

Warning – I’ve just noted a t-shirt site, www.a-better-tomorrow.de that gets little traffic but does exist. Maybe that is what market creator intended???

Lock of the week replied by wstritt @ Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:31:02 -0000

wstritt — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 19:31:02 -0000