Aside from the obvious Final Four markets, one of which appears to remain open during the games, two rather boring ones this week:

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/8705

For a quick 2 inkles, it is pretty much a certainty that The Amazing Race 13 won’t air in March 2008…or April 2008 for that matter, bothof which I’m short. I’m guessing not May either but I’m not invested either way. Market closes March 28th, however, so you are locked in but at least March should pay off quick.

For a longer term lock, there are two Formula One markets – normally a sure sign of arbitrage:

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10329
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10332

There are several pricing discrepancies but the largest, at the moment, is Nico Rosberg which trades at 8.90 on one market and .58 on the other. While this may tighten as the season develops providing opportunity to take profit, these markets do not ultimately pay out until November.

Please be warned, it is highly probable that I have invested in the above markets. While I have no current intention of cashing out my position, that is subject to change.

If you’re looking for a wider spread for arbitrage, there are also these markets, but again they don’t pay out until November:

What third party will get the most votes in 2008?
Which US third party will garner the largest % of the popular vote in the 2008 Presidential Elections?

Also, in the first market, you could sell the Reform Party short and almost be guaranteed a profit. It doesn’t look like the party, which has all but disintegrated, is running a presidential candidate this year.

Disclaimer: I’m a participant in both markets.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/8920

Absent a US boycott of the Olympics, the chances of the US winning less than 20 medals at the 2008 Olympics is pretty much zero. 11.76 inkles/share currently available to short here.

Even if you think the US may boycott, you can short 20-49 medals. The chances of the US winning less than 50 medals if they show up also seem pretty slim with the lowest US medal count since the 1980 boycott being 94 in 2000. 14 inkles/share available to short here.

Short them both, get two for the price of one in term of inkles being tied up (which is the current position I am holding).

50-79 at 17 inkles/share also seems unlikely given history but…

Market will not pay out until Olympics in August.

Let’s try a somewhat nearer term payoff this week. For what it is worth, I happened to run across this a couple of hours ago.

“Which country’s club(s) will make it to the UEFA Cup final match?”

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/7504

While there is some chance that the two German clubs remaining in the UEFA Cup end up in the finals (as they appear to be in separate brackets) resulting in the possibility of only a 100 inkle payout, this market should pay out at 100 inkles for two countries or 200 inkles overall. With one of the two German clubs needing to win the second match of the quarter final round by at least 3 goals on the road against St Petersburg, Russia (after losing by 3 goals at home) the 200 inkle payout scenario seems likely.

As I write, the market value of all of the stocks currently totals ~135 inkles meaning there should be a “lock” for 65 inkles available if all you do is buy one share of each stock absent the “two Germany” risk. At a minimum, if you actually understand the UEFA Cup teams (or cared to search out the betting odds), it seems pretty clear that someone is grossly undervalued.

Although there should be trading opportunities in the interim, in order for the strategy to fully work, you may need to hold until mid May for payout. Four of the remaining teams will be knocked out on April 10th paying out at 0 while the two Germany risk should become clearer so there may be a chance to jump in then unless too many people read this and jump in before hand. I don’t know if this market creator suspends trading during the games so there may be some in game trading opportunities – always a source of low risk inkles – as well.

Just as a warning, I bought equal positions of every stock when the sum of the individual stocks totaled less than 100 so I survive even the “two Germany” scenario. One last note – this is the UEFA Cup NOT UEFA Champions League.

As an aside, for a few truly no-risk inkles, as I write, there are several teams in the “Who will make the NBA Playoffs during the 2007/8 Season?” market (http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/7275) where the answer is already known but stocks not yet cashed out.

Update on “Which country’s club(s) will make it to the UEFA Cup final match?” discussed above.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/7504

The quarterfinal round is now over and four countries remain in contention for the Final match. As I write, and after roughly doubling my position, the remaining four stocks add up to 155 inkles with an ultimate payoff of 200 as the “two Germany” risk has been eliminated as expected.

How about something that pays off in less than two weeks – the NFL Draft markets, specifically:

“Who will be drafted first”
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/9553

and

“In the 2008 NFL draft, the number one pick will be…”
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10579

There are a number of “locks” or low risk angles to play these markets. Current consensus is that either Jake Long (OT) or Chris Long (DT) will be the first pick. The Dolphins could go either way but purportedly they are negotiating with Jake but who knows how that plays out. Of course, they could always trade the pick.

So, how to play:

While it is possible that someone could trade up to #1 to get McFadden (RB), not clear who would want to do that. Most likely they would trade up to get one of the two Longs or, maybe Dorsey. Pretty clear that no one will be trading up to get anything other than a DL, OL or McFadden (longshot for QB as none of this years crop are obviously “must haves” justifying trading for #1).

Trading strategy: In second market, short every position other than OL, DL, RB for ~11 inkles per 100 tied up. In first market short Ellis, Clady, Ryan for ~15 inkles per 100 tied up though sometimes surprise happen on names. These aren’t “locks” but probably low risk trades.

Probably is a “lock” that a wide receiver, tight end, special teams player, safety, linebacker or cornerback will not be #1 but just shorting that bunch only gets you ~4 inkles per 100.

For the real “Lock” (or as close to one as possible), as I write Chris Long is trading at 26.95 and Glenn Dorsey (DT) is trading at 8.41 (outside shot at #1 if the Longs prove difficult in pre-draft negotiations) in the first market while Defensive Lineman is trading at 44.30 in the second. Short DL and go long Chris & Glenn for 9 inkles per 100 inkles even if Jake is selected first. For the bold, just short DL and go long Chris to get 17 inkles per 100 which works as long as no other defensive lineman is picked #1.

Aside from the above, almost certainly opportunities to trade in various names over the next 11 days as rumors fly back and forth. Probably some chance to close out the above arbitrage as well. Also some chance that new argitages arise assuming people don’t equally trade in both markets.

By the way, Aqib Talib generally ranks somewhere between 3 and 5 on the cornerback depth charts so highly unlikely he will be the first CB taken. 15.66 inkles available by shorting him as I write.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/stocks/32582/tra…

Warning – I’ve been shorting him along the way from 50 down to this point so some chance I bail to lock in profits (and redeploy in more lucrative trades) if he trades to low single digits though that shouldn’t cost you anything given the stock should cash out at 0.

Have fun.

Sorry for typo. That should have read:

For the bold, short DL and just go long Chris to get 17 inkles per 100 which works as long as no other defensive lineman is picked #1.

I have corrected in the original post.

Of course, for the truly bold who think Jake will go first, you can still just short Chris per the original typo but that would not be a “lock”.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/8684

London mayoral race looks like it will come down to Livingstone or Johnson with the price of the two bouncing back and forth. One thing is pretty certain, it isn’t any of the others whose stocks currently add up to a little over 8 inkles. Short everyone other than Livingstone and Johnson (or go long Livingstone and Johnson) to pick up a quick 5-8 inkles per hundred with cash out less than 10 days away.

Cheers.

This isn’t quite a lock, but it’s pretty low-risk:

Who will be the 2008 presidential nominee of the (U.S.) Constitution Party?

The nominee almost certainly will be either Alan Keyes (the guy who ran as a Republican against Barack Obama for the U.S. Senate seat four years ago) or Chuck Baldwin (a Florida pastor who previously was the party’s vice presidential nominee). It also has been said that Roy Moore (the former Alabma jurist known for his defense of Ten Commandments displays) could have the nomination if he wants it, but he hasn’t indicated any interest in running. The only other candidate who appears to have significant support in the party is Ron Paul (who is still running for the Republican nomination), but Paul has made quite clear he won’t run as a third-party candidate this year.

In my opinion, it would be a low-risk investment to buy X shares each of Keyes, Baldwin and Moore; at current prices you’d probably triple your investment. You could also buy short on just about anyone else and almost be guaranteed a 6% return by Sunday.

You can find out more about the Constitution Party contest at Third Party Watch.

Disclaimer: This is one of my markets. I (obviously) have no inklings invested in it. This is merely my advice as a political observer; there are no guarantees.

Instead of low return, short term markets, this one is a bit more lucrative but may take a little more time to pay out. Should be this year though.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/3625

This market asks the question who are the members of the “Final Five” on Battlestar Galactica. This market will pay off at 100 for each of the “Final Five” or 500 Inkles overall.

At the end of season 3, four of the “Final Five” cylons were revealed to be: Tory Foster, Galen Tyrol, Samuel Anders and Saul Tigh. Absent some bizarre twist where that revelation proves to be a red herring (extremely unlikely in my uneducated view but a Battlestar Galatica fan might differ) each of these stocks should pay off at 100. As I write, they each trade at ~90. In other words, pretty much a lock for 10 Inkles per share.

That leaves the last of the “Final Five”. As I write, the sum of the remaining stocks total around 335 while the pay off is only 100 – a sure sign of mispriced stocks/market and no-risk Inkles to be had.

Shorting one of every share will cost 1000 less the 335 proceeds (or 665 tied up). Payoff should be at least 235 on that investment assuming one of the remaining stocks is the last of the five. If it turns out to be someone else, the payoff is 335. In either case, a nice return on investment.

An alternative strategy that ties up less resources is to short the 4 that are trading around 40 for 400 less the 160 proceeds (or 240 tied up) which will pay off 60 or 160 depending if one of them is in the final five. Still not a bad return.

Finally, it you are paranoid that the first 4 are red herrings, you can short every stock for 1400 less 695 proceeds (or 705 tied up) with payoff of at least 195 and maybe more. Also a pretty good return with the added benefit of creating larger profit opportunities for those who are less paranoid but at no cost to you.

Only caveat, the answer will presumably be revealed some time this season but it may not be until near the end.

For more background, try this link:

http://en.battlestarwiki.org/wiki/Final_five

Such easy Inkles. Why am I sharing this with you??

I was debating whether to bother this week as it seems, based on subsequent trading in the referenced markets, that few people take advantage of the locks posted. For example, after no one acted on the Battlestar Galactica lock, I had to start trading it myself. Maybe it was the indefinite closing date? Still plenty of free Inkles left there, just fewer than a week ago.

Unfortunately, closer in markets tend not to have as large amount of “free” Inkles. Let me offer a laundry list of markets closing by June 1st:

For 8 low risk (but not risk free) Inkles, you might try this market which will cash out in a couple of weeks:

Who will be the top scorer in 2007-08 UEFA Champions League?

While there is some chance that Didier Drogba (6 goals) can catch Ronaldo (7 goals), particularly if Chelsea wins the Champions League, it is unlikely (hint – this isn’t ice hockey kids) that Wayne Rooney (4 goals) or the field (currently led by Carlos Tevez @ 4 goals) will score 3 in the remaining 2 games to tie. Shorting them both will get you 8 Inkles.

http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html

Also 8 low risk Inkles to be had here:

When will the first episode of The Amazing Race 13 air?

Given lack of promotion, it seems highly unlikely that the Amazing Race 13 will air in May 2008.

Also, if you do a little research (i.e. Google search), you are likely to learn enough to make 20+ near term low risk Inkles per 100 tied up in mvguy’s Libertarian Party market, even if all you do is short the obvious non-winners:

Who will be the 2008 presidential nominee of the (U.S.) Libertarian Party?

Moving on to “locks”, here is a pair where there is a small amount of arbitrage where cash out should be in the next couple of weeks:

The 2008 winner of American Idol (Season 7) will have been selected from an audition in what US city?

The 2008 American Idol winner will be…..

Here is the key, at least per their profiles here

David Archuleta auditioned in San Diego
David Cook auditioned in Omaha
Seyesha Mercado auditioned in Miami
Jason Castro auditioned in Dallas

As I write Castro is trading at 1.16 in the latter market while Dallas is at 3.40 for 2 free Inkles. The rest are trading around parity partly due to my trading. However, periodically someone trades in one market and not the other opening 5 – 10 Inkle arbitrage opportunities. I would not be offended if someone other than me closed those gaps (i.e. short the higher priced stock and go long the cheaper one in equal amounts until the prices are equal for a locked in profit).

In a similar vein, there are two markets asking who will win the India Premier League Cricket Championship that should cash out around June 1st.

Which team will win the Indian Premier League’s T20 Cricket Final on June 1 2008
Which team will win the Inaugural Indian Premier League T20 Tournament.

At the moment, they are trading largely at parity with largest gap being around 2 Inkles. However, from time to time after a game, one market moves without a similar move in the other, an arb I tend to eliminate if I see it. Again, I would not be offended if someone other than me closed those gaps.

Finally, an update on the March 28th post: a new Formula 1 market has started asking a similar question, in this case whether Kimi Rakonnen will win:

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/11534

While originally trading at somewhat of a spread to the original two, someone has closed that arbitrage for the moment.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10329
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/10332

If anyone actually trades some of these, maybe I’ll give you something better (though somewhat longer term payout) next week.

Have fun.

This may only be open for a short while longer but:

When will the first episode of The Amazing Race 13 air?

CBS has announced its fall schedule with The Amazing Race on Sunday Night. Schedule and link to press release at following link:

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/fall_preview_2008/

While “Season 13” isn’t expressly identified, TAF is not on the list of “Summer Shows” so the fall series is Season 13 by definition.

I assume the Fall primetime schedule will start in September though it isn’t expressly stated in the CBS release.

September is currently at 77 inkles with seemingly a “lock” payout of 100.

An early one this week given that the opportunity may close out soon if the market creators notice.

Which team will win the Indian Premier League’s T20 Cricket Final on June 1 2008?

Which team will win the Inaugural Indian Premier League T20 Tournament?

If my calculations are correct, with 3 games left to play, the highest point total for the Deccan Chargers can only be 10 while the top 4 already are at 12 and, thus, they have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs so should cash out at 0 in both markets. Depending on the outcome of today’s game, the Bangalore Royal Challengers may suffer the same fate.

UPDATE: Bangalore lost. Go here for current standings.

Both are trading around 5 inkles in both markets so several quick turnaround 5 inkle per hundred tied up locks (or soon to be locks).

By the way, based on an e-mail from the market creator on The Amazing Race, since a specific month is not yet stated, it looks like close out will remain month by month. September still seems like a lock to me.

Not being particularly creative this week, a repeat from a different thread that it doesn’t seem many read:

Will UCF repeat as 2008 CUSA Football Champion? currently trading at $33.63 for yes.

Versus What team will win the 2008 CUSA Football Championship? where UCF currently trades at $16.36.

When I first noted this arbitrage, there were 23 inkles per 100 tied up to be had. It is down to 17 inkles per 100 but still not a bad “lock” return if you have some inkles to keep tied up for a while.

This one will take two months to pay off but there are probably several 17+ Inkle “close to” locks available here.

Who will speak at 2008 Democratic convention?

If the 2004 convention speaker list is any indication of typical speakers, seems likely that the major candidates will speak. In that group:

Hillary Clinton trading at 82.35 – no way they can prevent her from speaking given number of delegates she has

John Edwards trading at 83.43 – only 6 delegates but the 3rd largest vote-getter in the primaries

Bill Richardson trading at 78.92 – no delegates but 4th largest vote-getter and high profile Hispanic Governor to boot

Not locks but Ex-Presidents get to talk if they want to. In that group:

Bill Clinton trading at 69.09 – only thing that stops him is if Hillary tells him to shut up

Jimmy Carter trading at 66.38 – seems to have things to say these days

Not locks but Other highly likely speakers:

Nancy Pelosi trading at 75.40 – Speaker of the House, a “must” speaker

Al Gore trading at 71.18 – Noble Prize winner and winner of 2000 election in view of most convention attendees

Ted Kennedy trading at 65.57 – Supporter of Obama and a Kennedy, only physical inability keeps him from speaking

Not Locks but good chance speakers:

Jesse Jackson trading at 54.99 – In some respects, blazed the trail for Obama

Chelsea Clinton trading at 50.00 – All the candidates kids spoke last time and who better to introduce Hillary than the next generation

WARNING: I HAVE LONG POSITIONS IN ALL OF THE ABOVE

No chance speaker

Reverend Wright…but he has already traded down to 4.32

WARNING: I AM SHORT WRIGHT AND SEVERAL OTHERS

ALL PRICES AS OF TIME OF POST

Not quite a lock, but low-risk:

In my market on top summer movies, all of the ones I started out at $10 are films that are very unlikely to be blockbusters. Chances are that some of them won’t even open this summer and/or will be very poor earners. You might have to wait until September to earn your $10, but not necessarily.

A little bit of research on some of the other movies also could pay off handsomely.

I am bummed beyond belief. mvguy beat me to the punch on the TOP SUMMER MOVIE market. He is absolutely correct – there is some chance that one of the 10 stocks could hit the top 10 but the odds are really closer to 1 in 100 (or greater) than the 1 in 10 implied by the opening price so shorting them all would be a winner.

I would also note that the stocks remaining open are currently trading for >1300 inkles with a max payoff of 900 (Indiana Jones has already closed out). Short one of everything locks in a gain of 400 inkles though that would tie up ~3600 inkles for varying periods of time. The obvious conclusion, however, is that there are multiple mispricings left in this market so mvguy’s point about a little research certainly rings true.

An advertisement for a market that I currently have no interest in but is a LOCK for a BIG PAYOFF: When will the U.S. Constitution be amended?

Newsflash – the chances of it happening by the current prediction of 10/9/2009 are close to nil and probably close to nil any time within several years of that date. In other words, a LOCK for a BIG PAYOFF. Unfortunately you won’t get cashed out for a very long time…and maybe not until the 2020 market end date. Still, a place to make and/or park some inkles. Note my caveats in the comment section though. I suspect that there are only a handful for investors (maybe even only one or two) that hold the bulk of the stock at the moment so some risk that they could severely drop the price if they chose to sell. On the other hand, that would tend to greatly diminish their inkle balance so maybe they have an incentive to hang around.

Next week I promise something better but I need to play around with it a bit myself this week before settling on the locks.

Happy trading.

Well, I promised something better, not sure I can deliver though. While I beleive that there are a bunch of inkles to be had, I can’t say it is a “lock” given that something could happen between now and June 25th market closing in the What is the probability each of these yCombinator start-ups will get bought out in the next 2 years? market.

It would appear that TextPayMe – trading at 76.93 – has been bought by Amazon.com (this or this link among others), however it is somewhat disconcerting that the stock has not already been cashed out like Kiko and Reddit, particularly given the market creator, Adam, is Inkling and they should have some insight mere mortals such as us do not have.

On the other hand, YouOS – trading at 32.83 – about us suggests it has not yet been sold.

Flipt – trading at 31.61 – is now loopt.com. Based on their history, while they have sourced some venture capital it appears they have not been “bought out”.

ClickFacts – trading at 31.52 – is privately held but one of the founders is only part of the team. I’m guessing he didn’t completely sell out to the VC’s that seem to be in control but that may be a matter of interpretation for Adam. Tricky question on this one.

Wufoo – trading at 31.01 – however, still seems to be under the control of the original founders.

Snipshot, AudioBeta and Flagr all seem to have not been bought out either. No articles like this one on any of the companies on the list though.

CAUTION is the word on these – my research is not all inclusive and there is much more out there than cited above. Lots of Inkles on the table for either longs or shorts, answers are knowable (maybe you could even call them up rather than just relying on Google searchs) and pay off should be in 5 days. But, I can not confirm a lock. Sorry.

For true locks, but not many Inkles, though this market still has 2.4 inkles per 100 tied up in a short from teams that have already been eliminated, it seems pretty clear that Samuel Israel did not suicide for 4 inkles per 100 tied up, while in the home run race, due to injuries, Pujols and Soriano – 3.90 each or 7.80 per 100 tied up in a short – are unlikely to be the leaders at year end. And, oh by the way, Massachusetts – trading at 89.02 is voting for Obama over McCain in the fall.

I almost wasn’t going to bother this week but this one is driving me nuts. There are at least three markets asking essentially the same question:

Will Barack Obama win the 2008 U.S. Election? currently trading at 80.60;

Who will win the 2008 United States Presidential Election? with Barack Obama currently trading at 75.39; and

Which party’s nominee will win the US Presidential election in 2008? with Democrat (i.e. Obama) trading at 71.82

At one point, the spread between the high and low probabilities for Obama was 17 inkles (71 to 88). Someone really likes the first market and Obama and keeps bidding it up. Opportunity to keep shorting it and going long whichever other market is priced the lowest currently worth 8 inkles.

There also may be some inkles to be made in similar markets for running mates.

Here’s one I just came across (and am taking advantage of):

CrowdSpirit.com: Will the crowd succeed in co-developing an electronic product from scratch?

From what I can tell, CrowdSpirit.com is still in a beta of some sort and is nowhere near developing a product. It sounds like an interesting idea, but it’s not going to bear fruit by the end of this month.

I debated whether to post this one or just keep it to myself but decided to share the wealth. Tons of inkles to be had and payday is at the end of July.

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten

The 8/3/07 comment from the market creator in a response to a question reads: “All of them are startups that launched in the last couple of months. The question is: Which of these social shopping services will survive/ be successful?”

While it is not entirely clear what the criteria will be – survive being somewhat different than successful – it seems to me a reasonable proxy for success is probably traffic rank in Germany, the home of the sites represented by the stocks.

As of earlier this week, according to Alexa.com, traffic rankings in Germany (as well as my preliminary classification) are:

Successful
Traddoria.de 1,292
dewanda.com 1,307
edelight.de 1,368

Somewhat Successful
Yieeha.de 3,565
dealjaeger.de 4,346

Survivor
shoppero.com 14,091

Survivors ???
askfirst.de 152,234
sosmart.de 144,820

Dead
deals.de 20,146
abettertomorrow.de 289,421

For classification of “success”, I referred to this web site for some of the top US social shopping sites. Etsy.com and kaboodle.com seem to be the top pure social shopping sites and, per Alexa, rank 340 and 646 in US traffic, respectively. Dropping to the next tier, Stylefeeder.com, buzzillions.com and thisnext.com. They rank 5260, 3483, and 2681, respectively. This suggests to me, anyway, that anything above 5,000 should probably be considered at least somewhat successful.

Beyond that, with a deeper market, the US can support more sites, so a German rank >10,000 is debatable as to “success” leaving shopperoo.com as, at best, a “survivor”.

As for the possible survivors, there is still a website for askfirst.com but gets so little traffic it is debatable if it is anything more than a zombie. If one read German, you could probably go through the site and figure out the answer. There is also still a website for sosmart.de but it seems to be referring to waiting for testing a 2.0 beta – certainly not a “success” and maybe not anything.

As for the Dead classification, deals.de was dead in April but appears to have recently resurfaced though not as a social shopping site. The website for abettertomorrow.de appears to have reverted to a generic site collector.

So, I would suggest edelight, dawanda and traddoria (all currently at 76.86 inkles so 23 inkle upside) are pretty much locks for 100 inkle payouts while deals.de (trading at 25.36) and abettertomorrow (trading at 31.01) are pretty much locks for 0 payouts.

All the others fall somewhere in between.

Obviously, I have been trading in this market. As best I can tell, I probably represent 90%+ of shares transacted to date. In the interest of sharing the wealth, I will refrain from further trading in this market until the middle of next week at which point I will probably resume trading it if no one else pays attention to it.

Good luck.

OK. One more lock…or at least close to it…pitting a new market against an old one.

After the rumors about Brett Farve’s un-retirement, this market was launched:

Will Brett Favre play in the NFL in the 2008-2009 season?

“Yes – as a Packer” is trading at 29.58.

On the other hand, an older market asks:

What QB will take the first snap under center for the 2008 Green Bay Packers (regular season)?

Our man Brett trades at 4.94 in this market.

Now, if Brett returns as a Packer, one would think it would be before pre-season and that he would start the first game. Of course, he could return but get injured before the first game but I don’t think that explains a 25 Inkle difference in price. Or decide mid pre-season, but I doubt the Packers would do that to their team. Or, he might return mid-season if Rodgers falters but since the first market closes out at the beginning of the season, I doubt that is what the market creator had in mind.

No, I thing there is a 20+ Inkle lock by shorting the first market and going long the second.

I currently hold a 20 share position in both ends of this trade, unfortunately started before someone bid up Farve to 29 in the first market. If no one else close this gap by the end of the week, I will probably do so.

Enjoy.

Update on:

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten?

Shoppero.com now appears to have a somewhat functional “Beta” site up and running.

Update on:

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten?

Warning – I’ve just noted a t-shirt site, www.a-better-tomorrow.de that gets little traffic but does exist. Maybe that is what market creator intended???

This isn’t quite a lock, but despite some ambiguities involved there could be a lot of inkles still to be made in this market in the next few days:

Will there be another attack targeting civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan in the next six months?

Before you invest any inkles in this, you’d probably be best off reading the discussion first.

Disclaimer: I have beaucoup inkles in this market right now, more than really care to risk.