An alert to traders that there are a series of markets with the tag ‘michigan’ or ‘annarbor’ opening up. I’m running these as short term markets, typically closing on Thursday mornings, using some metric that I can directly measure here in town. One new market in the hopper e.g. is the number of holds on Freakonomics (revised ed.) at the Ann Arbor District Library which will trade as AADLA. I’ll try to get a Harry Potter library market set up too as soon as they open up the new title for reserves.

One of these markets is the series of a2b3 markets trading as A2B3A, A2B3B, etc. which predict the number of people who will be at my weekly Thursday lunch gathering at Eastern Accents in Ann Arbor. I polled the assembled crowd (19) to get a sense for next week, so that I can start the markets somewhere reasonable.

Running a prediction market for a meeting can be better than asking RSVPs!

When you use the prediction market for a meeting do you somehow limit it to people who can actually come to the meeting or doesn’t that matter?

It shouldn’t matter – people who aren’t coming this week have a useful data point for estimating total attendance by virtue of their non-attendance, or perhaps they just are interested in the possible outcome to make a few inkles.