Wanted: Enough information to do my own estimate of price change, cost posted by onemike @ Tue, 15 May 2007 02:42:39 -0000

onemike — Tue, 15 May 2007 02:42:39 -0000

I understand that, in general, you rely on Robin Hanson’s Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule to handle pricing of transactions.

I’ve been playing around with some ideas about pricing, and to test them out it would be useful to be able to predict exactly the price effects of arbitrary transactions in existing markets. (I’d like to be able to compute ‘ideal’ transactions given a set of existing prices and my own ideas about the underlying probabilities in a market.)

From what I can tell, you already provide almost all of the information necessary for a user to make this kind of calculation. Any chance you can provide the rest of the information needed? (Or if all of the information is already out there somewhere, can you point it out.)

Thanks.

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Wanted: Enough information to do my own estimate of price change, cost posted by onemike @ Tue, 15 May 2007 02:42:39 -0000