Topic: For Traders / Market not cashed out when it should be

I have sent e-mail to this market creator and haven’t received any response:

What third party will get the most votes in 2008?

The correct answer is the Libertarian Party:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/allcandidates/

Bob Barr was the Libertarian candidate, and this market specifically excluded independent candidates such as Ralph Nader.

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

And speaking of election markets, one of mine, How many presidential and vice-presidential campaign visits to Montana by Election Day?, is close to a lock for “two to three” and is currently priced around 75.

And in another market of mine, At what time will CNN declare the winner of the Nov. 4, 2008, U.S. presidential election?, the current top pick of 9-10 p.m. EST at $17, is way, way overpriced in my opinion. For that to happen, Obama would have to sweep states that McCain is likely to get and/or Obama’s winning margins would have to be such that projections can be made before the votes are counted. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it’s extremely unlikely. CNN is adamant that it won’t prematurely project the results, so I think any projection of a winner is unlikely before 7:30 p.m. PST. And if CNN follows its announced policies, any projection before 8:30 p.m. EST is impossible, so you might be able to pick up a few inkles by selling short some of the earlier times.

Of course, in politics there are few guarantees. The above are my opinion (and I have no money invested in them because I created them), and I could be wrong in both cases.

Topic: For Traders / Market not cashed out when it should be

I have e-mailed the market creator and have not received a response:

Will 2 or more hurricanes of a category 3 or higher hit the U.S. mainland by October 15, 2008?

Gustav is the only hurricane that was of Category 3 or higher when it hit the U.S. mainland.

Also, this market remains cashed out incorrectly:

Will the Dow Jones be up for the week ending 8/29?

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

Not quite a lock, but in Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Idaho in 2008? the chance that Jim Risch, now at 80 percent, will win the race are (in my opinion) much higher than that Barack Obama will win his, and in most markets he’s going at around 93 percent (which I think is about 20 points too high, but that’s a whole other subject).

There are some true locks in my Which movies from Labor Day through Christmas 2008 will rank in the U.S. top 10 in terms of opening-week U.S. box-office receipts? market if you have enough cash on hand to sell multiple films short. Right now, there are 19 films whose shares are selling for $40 or more, yet of those only 10 will cash out at $100. Buy one share of each of them and you’ll approximately double your money by the end of the year, guaranteed.

And while they aren’t true locks, you could make smaller amounts of money by selling short those films on the bottom of the list and are nearly certain not to be blockbusters, and you won’t have to wait until the end of the year to collect your winnings. In my opinion, the chance that any of them priced at $10 or below will make the top 10 are extremely remote. No guarantees, though.

Topic: For Traders / Market not cashed out when it should be

Here’s a market that was cashed out both prematurely and incorrectly:

Will the Dow Jones be up for the week ending 8/29?

I have been unsuccessful in my attempts to contact the market owner.

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

This isn’t quite a lock, but despite some ambiguities involved there could be a lot of inkles still to be made in this market in the next few days:

Will there be another attack targeting civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan in the next six months?

Before you invest any inkles in this, you’d probably be best off reading the discussion first.

Disclaimer: I have beaucoup inkles in this market right now, more than really care to risk.

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

There also may be some inkles to be made in similar markets for running mates.

Here’s one I just came across (and am taking advantage of):

CrowdSpirit.com: Will the crowd succeed in co-developing an electronic product from scratch?

From what I can tell, CrowdSpirit.com is still in a beta of some sort and is nowhere near developing a product. It sounds like an interesting idea, but it’s not going to bear fruit by the end of this month.

Topic: For Traders / Market not cashed out when it should be

When will Hillary Rodham Clinton withdraw from the race for the 2008 Democratic nomination?

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

Not quite a lock, but low-risk:

In my market on top summer movies, all of the ones I started out at $10 are films that are very unlikely to be blockbusters. Chances are that some of them won’t even open this summer and/or will be very poor earners. You might have to wait until September to earn your $10, but not necessarily.

A little bit of research on some of the other movies also could pay off handsomely.

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

This isn’t quite a lock, but it’s pretty low-risk:

Who will be the 2008 presidential nominee of the (U.S.) Constitution Party?

The nominee almost certainly will be either Alan Keyes (the guy who ran as a Republican against Barack Obama for the U.S. Senate seat four years ago) or Chuck Baldwin (a Florida pastor who previously was the party’s vice presidential nominee). It also has been said that Roy Moore (the former Alabma jurist known for his defense of Ten Commandments displays) could have the nomination if he wants it, but he hasn’t indicated any interest in running. The only other candidate who appears to have significant support in the party is Ron Paul (who is still running for the Republican nomination), but Paul has made quite clear he won’t run as a third-party candidate this year.

In my opinion, it would be a low-risk investment to buy X shares each of Keyes, Baldwin and Moore; at current prices you’d probably triple your investment. You could also buy short on just about anyone else and almost be guaranteed a 6% return by Sunday.

You can find out more about the Constitution Party contest at Third Party Watch.

Disclaimer: This is one of my markets. I (obviously) have no inklings invested in it. This is merely my advice as a political observer; there are no guarantees.

Topic: For Traders / Lock of the week

If you’re looking for a wider spread for arbitrage, there are also these markets, but again they don’t pay out until November:

What third party will get the most votes in 2008?
Which US third party will garner the largest % of the popular vote in the 2008 Presidential Elections?

Also, in the first market, you could sell the Reform Party short and almost be guaranteed a profit. It doesn’t look like the party, which has all but disintegrated, is running a presidential candidate this year.

Disclaimer: I’m a participant in both markets.

Topic: For Traders / Market not cashed out when it should be

The market on the hospitalization of Dick Cheney hasn’t been cashed out. To the best of my knowledge, the correct answer is “No.” I’ve written the market owner and haven’t heard back:
Cheney hospitalization

Topic: For Marketplace Administrators / Graph doesn't display both markets

I made the On which date will a U.S. presidential candidate from each major party clinch his or her nomination? market. For some reason, only the Republican results display. I’ve filed a bug report, but I also wonder if there’s anything I might have done wrong in setting this up to keep the Democrats from appearing. Any suggestions? Thanks.

Topic: Feature Requests / "Most recently traded" in the markets list

I was searching for markets the other day and come across some that hadn’t seen activity in a long time even though they’re still quite pertinent to current events. Without doing a search by keyword, I never would have seen them. Perhaps a “most recently traded” or a “traded today” listing might make it easier to revive some of those auctions that involve an event in the semi-distant future.

Topic: For Traders / Numerical markets

Thanks!

Topic: For Traders / Numerical markets

The directions for the predict-a-number market aren’t entirely clear to me. So I have just three simple questions:

1. How much do you earn? I’m assuming if that (for example) it’s a predict-the-widget-price market, and I buy 10 shares at $43 a share, and the price goes up to $53, I earn $100. Is that correct?

2. My main question: How does this work for selling short? Suppose shares are priced at $43 a share, and I feel the price will go down. But then the price goes up to $1,000. How much do I lose? $953 per share? Where does the money come from? I understand, and correct me if I’m wrong, that in a yes-no market, for example, selling short at $43 is the mathematical equivalent of buying the opposite result for $57. But how does that work on a market where there’s no upper limit? Or is there?

3. Do the predict-the-date markets work in the same way? Does a day count as a dollar, or what?

Thanks!