Topic: Lock of the week

Another of my markets: Which of these free agents will the NY Yankees sign for the 2009 season?

Rumors are out there that Mike Mussina is about to announce his retirement.

Obviously not a lock since there is always a chance the Yankees could change his mind, however until something is officially announced, the stock remains open for trading. Mussina is currently trading at 59.

Topic: Lock of the week

One more to add for your post-election payouts, though it may not remain open that long: When will David Tennant leave Doctor Who?.

David Tennant announced last week that he will be leaving the series after the 2009 specials which is before Season 5. That option is currently trading at 54.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/doctorwho/s4/misc/news/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/769853…

Lots of free Inkles here. I’ve already taken some but leaving plenty for everyone else.

While it is possible the market creator will leave this open to make sure Tennant doesn’t change his mind, since they are not an active Inkling trader, I’m guessing they forgot about the market and will close out if/when the above are passed on to him/her or the Inkling Administrators. With the amount left, still worth a buy even if a long term hold.

Topic: Lock of the week

And speaking of election markets, one of mine, How many presidential and vice-presidential campaign visits to Montana by Election Day?, is close to a lock for “two to three” and is currently priced around 75.

And in another market of mine, At what time will CNN declare the winner of the Nov. 4, 2008, U.S. presidential election?, the current top pick of 9-10 p.m. EST at $17, is way, way overpriced in my opinion. For that to happen, Obama would have to sweep states that McCain is likely to get and/or Obama’s winning margins would have to be such that projections can be made before the votes are counted. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it’s extremely unlikely. CNN is adamant that it won’t prematurely project the results, so I think any projection of a winner is unlikely before 7:30 p.m. PST. And if CNN follows its announced policies, any projection before 8:30 p.m. EST is impossible, so you might be able to pick up a few inkles by selling short some of the earlier times.

Of course, in politics there are few guarantees. The above are my opinion (and I have no money invested in them because I created them), and I could be wrong in both cases.

Topic: Lock of the week

There are clearly some 4-6 Inkle locks with payout on Wednesday November 5th in the What states will the Democratic candidate win in the 2008 US Presidential Election? market. New England states are locks for Obama with best bets Maine, at 93.5 and Rhode Island at 94. California at 94.9 is also a lock. Obviously many more but those are the most blatant.

On the short side, Nebraska at 6.2 is a lock for McCain while a number of states trading in the teens/twenties are highly likely to go McCain as well though not locks.

An interesting short play, but clearly not a lock is Missouri trading at 73 but with recent polls suggesting it is more of a toss up.

Some good buys/shorts also in Which key U.S. House races will the Democrats win in 2008? and In which of these states will the Democrat win the U.S. Senate contest in 2008? markets – Texas at 8.3 a lock to pay out at 0, NH at 91.5 probably a lock to pay ot at 100 – in the latter market, for example. North Dakota or Indiana: Which state goes Obama? provides an interesting (read better priced) alternative to play North Dakota and/or Indiana.

But you are probably already fully tapped out in the election markets. Here is the lock to drop Inkles on with your proceeds from the election markets on Wednesday: Will Georgia Tech go to a bowl game in the 08/09 season? Georgia Tech is 7-2 after today’s game and is pretty much a lock to show up in some bowl game. Currently trading ~80.

Topic: Lock of the week

Sorry. Typo in my last post now corrected to TD market.

Topic: Lock of the week

Another of my markets:

How many TD passes will Brett Favre complete in the 2008 Regular Season?

After 7 games, Brett has thrown 15 touchdown passes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?p…

“15 or less” is trading at 6. While not a lock, absent an injury, seems pretty unlikely he won’t throw another one.

Seems to me a number of stocks are incorrectly priced in this market as well as in How many interceptions will Brett Favre throw in the 2008 regular season? where “Less than 11” just cashed out at 7.66.

Topic: Lock of the week

At the moment, there are arbitrage opportunity between 3 of my markets:

Which of these free agents will the NY Yankees sign for the 2009 season?

Who will CC Sabathia sign with for the 2009 season?

Who will Manny Ramirez sign with for the 2009 season?

While they are relatively new so have yet to attract a lot of attention, there are some overlaps in traders between the markets. It is interesting to note the different results depending on how the question was asked. I was debating not pointing this out to all of you to see how long it would take before the markets sorted themselves out but…

Topic: Lock of the week

I beleive we now have a lock on this one:

Vil vi nå 400.000 unike lesere i uken på Gallup sine målinger i løpet av 2008? which, per my comment on the market in March translates to: “Will we attain 400,000 unique visitors in a week during 2008 according to Gallup”.

In the “Market Information” section of the market, it refers to http://www.tns-gallup.no/default.aspx?did=9075748 which is a Norwegian version of a Gallup site traffic monitoring service so presumably the question relates to some website’s traffic. As I also note in my March comment, the only question is what site the headline question refers to.

A Google search on the name of the market creator “thoeriksen” leads eventually to a Thomas Eriksen, who is Manager of Business Development for the website dn.no, a Norwegian financial web site. Said Thomas Eriksen also appears to use the same “thoeriksen” name for personal g-mail account.

Of course, Thomas Eriksen may be a common name in Norway and this market may not have anything to do with the guy I found (who I have yet to contact by the way) but at the time the question was posted, dn.no had weekly unique visitors of around 200,000-250,000. In that context, the question forming the basis of the market would be an appropriate one for this particular Thomas Eriksen to ask.

With all of the financial turmoil of late, Dn.no’s traffic has been rising with the magic number of 400,000 finally cracked this week (week 41) coming in at 417,219.

I have traded this up to 80 but am leaving the the last 20 for all of you. I’m guessing the market creator has forgotten about this which is why it is still open. I will “contact the market creator” in 24-48 hours to see if I can get him to cash it out so should be a quick one.

Or it could be someone else – you could short me to death if I’m wrong – but I’m guessing not.

Topic: Lock of the week

Not quite a lock, but in Who will win the U.S. Senate race in Idaho in 2008? the chance that Jim Risch, now at 80 percent, will win the race are (in my opinion) much higher than that Barack Obama will win his, and in most markets he’s going at around 93 percent (which I think is about 20 points too high, but that’s a whole other subject).

There are some true locks in my Which movies from Labor Day through Christmas 2008 will rank in the U.S. top 10 in terms of opening-week U.S. box-office receipts? market if you have enough cash on hand to sell multiple films short. Right now, there are 19 films whose shares are selling for $40 or more, yet of those only 10 will cash out at $100. Buy one share of each of them and you’ll approximately double your money by the end of the year, guaranteed.

And while they aren’t true locks, you could make smaller amounts of money by selling short those films on the bottom of the list and are nearly certain not to be blockbusters, and you won’t have to wait until the end of the year to collect your winnings. In my opinion, the chance that any of them priced at $10 or below will make the top 10 are extremely remote. No guarantees, though.

Topic: Lock of the week

This one is pretty much a lock.

Will the Michigan Wolverines football team play in a bowl game following the 2008 season?

In order to be eligible for a bowl game, Michigan needs at least 6 wins. After today’s loss to Toledo (to Toledo???), Michigan sports a 2-4 record with six games left to play.

Michigan’s remaining schedule is not very conducive to winning 4 more games. Three of the games are against currently ranked teams: Ohio State (5-1), Michigan State (5-1) and Penn State (6-0). Two of the remaining three, Northwestern (5-0) and Minnesota (5-1), do not appear to be pushovers either. Purdue (2-3) looks like the only potential soft spot remaining.

What are the chances of Michigan picking up 4 wins against that schedule. Zero, in my humble opinion. “yes” is trading ~64 as I write (after I took it down from around 85).

Though not a complete lock, looks like 64 free inkles to me.

Also, by the way, the chances of Michigan winning 7 or more games (currently trading ~19 in How many regular season football games will Michigan win in 2008?) is pretty much Zero as well.

Finally, still some Inkles to be had on at least the previous 3 posts.

Topic: Lock of the week

See the previous two posts for a couple of true locks.

However, while this one isn’t a “lock” given market volatility, it is grossly mispriced:

Which of the following indices will perform best in 2008?

Through today, everything other than the 10 Year Treasury Note (which is trading ~18 inkles) is down 25-45%+ for the year. The MSCI Emerging Market Index, currently trading at ~16, is down 46% YTD. Absent a miracle recovery in the markets, the 10 Year Treasury looks like a winner – it is, at a minimum, grossly underpriced. Of course, markets could change.

Note – I do hold a long position in the 10 year Treasury taking it up from 11 to 18. I don’t intend to sell it unless the markets stage a massive recovery.

Topic: Lock of the week

A quick update on markets first noted on March 28th. At current count, there are 4 markets relating to results of the current Formula 1 season which has only 3 races remaining: Japan 10/12, Shanghai 10/19, San Paulo 11/2.

Who will win the 2008 Formula 1 Drivers World Championship?
Who will win the 2008 formula one season?
Who will win the Formula 1 World Championship 2008?
Will Kimi Raikkonen win the F1 driver championship 2008?

For purposes of determining the winning driver, points are scored 10 for a first place finish, 8 for second, 6 for third, 5 for fourth, 4 for fifth, 3 for sixth, 2 for seventh and 1 for eighth.

With only three races remaining and 30 points left to be had, the current leader and drivers within 30 points of him are:

Lewis Hamilton – 84points
Felipe Massa – 77
Robert Kubica – 64
Kimi Raikkonen – 57
Nick Heidfeld – 56

Absent Hamilton not showing up, the only driver that has any realistic shot at catching him is Massa with Kubica being a real longshot at passing both Hamilton and Massa.

Depending on the market, Raikkonen is trading anywhere from 5 to 7 inkles, Heidfeld around 1 and, surprisingly, “everyone else” from 4 to 6 (adding up the shorts). All of these should be considered locks for shorts and will probably be eliminated after the next race so perhaps a 10/12 cash out.

Kubica is trading from 5 to 8 inkles and could easily be eliminated on 10/12 as well.

Also – See update to 9/28 post above.

Topic: Lock of the week

Who will be the MLS Western Division point leader going into the playoffs

With only 4 regular season games remaining so only 12 points available if a team wins them all, seems pretty unlikely that LA (8 inkles) and San Jose (3 inkles) with 29 points will catch Houston at 40 points (who has 5 games remaining including tonight). Ditto on Dallas (6.5 inkles) with 30 points.

All three are pretty much “Locks” for 0 payout so 17 inkles available on a “short”. Remember, with a single answer multiple choice market, multiple shorts tie up the same number of inkles as a single short (though you need to have enough “free” inkles to execute each trade).

Could be a quick payout as well depending on what happens tonight and next weekend and if the market creator promptly cashes out dead stocks.

10/5 update: In the Eastern division – Who will be the MLS Eastern Division point leader going into the playoffs? – with three games remaining, Columbus Crew (trading at 82) appears to be a lock to be the East Division leader. Only team with shot of catching them is Chicago who has 4 games remaining (including tonight) and trails by 12 points. Best case for Chicago is Columbus loses their remaining games while Chigao wins out. Not Likely. I declare Columbus a Lock.

Topic: Lock of the week

When will scientists at the LHC claim definitive discovery/evidence of the Higgs Boson?

Well, the LHC has suffered some minor mishaps and won’t be restarted until Spring 2009.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-10049188-76.html

May 1 2008 – October 31 2008 is trading at 14 and seems like a Lock to pay off at 0 at the end of next month.

Given timing of restart, seems likely that November 1 2008 – March 31 2009 is a 0 pay out as well. Currently the top stock at ~36.

Topic: Lock of the week

Not quite a lock but close to it. And a relatively large near term payout available.

Who will save more games for their respective Chicago Baseball team in 2008?

As of the end of play on September 20, Kerry Wood has 32 saves versus 28 for Bobby Jenks. Cubs have 9 games left for Wood to pick up more. Sox only have 8 games left for Jenks to pick up 4 saves to tie assuming Wood gets no more. Strikes me as a long shot. Wood is trading at ~70.

Market closes October 4th so that is worst case cash out however answer will certainly be known before then so perhaps sooner.

I already have a long position in Wood and am trying to kick the habit and not trade this further. However, if it is still around in a week, I will buy it well into the 90’s

Topic: Lock of the week

Two things:

Short term:

Will O.J. Simpson be found guilty of one or more felonies at his September/October 2008 trial in Las Vegas? is currently trading around 73.

Is OJ Finally Going To Do Time? is currently trading around 59.

I suppose there is some chance that he is convicted of a felony but given community service rather than jail time but other than that possibility, 14 free inkles available.

Longer term:

Will MINI outsell HUMMER in 2008?

Closes 1/8/09 and final 2008 stats may not be out for a couple weeks after but: Duh…......

Topic: Lock of the week

Another of my markets. By how many saves will Francisco Rodriguez break the MLB single season save record in 2008?

K-Rod earned his 56th save of the year against the Yankees today (9/10). One more and he ties the all time record. Angels have 17 games left to play. Though they have clinched and may be inclined to rest him, one would think they would give him every opportunity to tie and/or break the record. “Doesn’t break or tie” currently trading around 10. Enough said.

Topic: Lock of the week

This is a market I created so I can’t trade it. Also, I don’t have a “lock” per se however it is a “lock” that at least one stock per week in How many games will the Miami Dolphins win in the 2008 regular season? will be closed out at 0 until the last 2 games of the season so there is a lock on payout of a short weekly. No one took advantage of it week 1 though it appears that some trading in the 2 likely 0 stocks has since taken place. Still, something worth passing on.

Since I do not suspend trading during the games, it is also an opportunity to trade as the game progresses and outcome (i.e. likely 0 cash out stock) is known and, thus, a lock. I would also point out THIS IS THE DOLPHINS FOR CRYING OUT LOUD. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out at least a couple of 0 cashouts though one may have to wait a week to two for satisfaction. I’d also note that once one stock has been shorted, it doesn’t tie up more inkles to short another (though it would tie up the amount for longer) since this is a single outcome multiple choice market.

Topic: Lock of the week

Haven’t done this in a while but this market has plenty of opportunities for free inkles.

Which teams will play in the 2008 World Series?

At the moment, the 5 AL teams add up to ~199 and only 1 will pay out at 100. Short them all and make 99 inkles for 500 tied up. The 6 NL teams add up to ~211. Short them all and make 111 inkles for 600 tied up. Short everything including other and make 224 inkles for 1200 tied up.

Topic: Lock of the week

Will Joe Lieberman speak at the 2008 Republican National Convention?

MSNBC reports: “Sen. Joe Lieberman to speak at GOP convention”

Market will not close until he actually speaks so barring some unforseen circumstance, with “Yes” trading at ~86 Inkles, 14 Inkles left to be had.

Topic: Lock of the week

Very boring but with Farve traded to Jets and Pennington released, “One” is a lock to cash out at 0 in this market:

How many NFL teams will have new starting QBs in 2008?

That would be a lock for 3.5 inkles. I haven’t followed it that closely but I would imagine there is a decent chance that several other of these stocks are pretty much locks as well if one chose to do a little research.

Topic: Lock of the week

This isn’t quite a lock, but despite some ambiguities involved there could be a lot of inkles still to be made in this market in the next few days:

Will there be another attack targeting civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan in the next six months?

Before you invest any inkles in this, you’d probably be best off reading the discussion first.

Disclaimer: I have beaucoup inkles in this market right now, more than really care to risk.

Topic: Lock of the week

Update on:

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten?

Warning – I’ve just noted a t-shirt site, www.a-better-tomorrow.de that gets little traffic but does exist. Maybe that is what market creator intended???

Topic: Lock of the week

Update on:

Welche der Social Shopping Dienste werden sich am deutschen Markt behaupten?

Shoppero.com now appears to have a somewhat functional “Beta” site up and running.

Topic: Lock of the week

OK. One more lock…or at least close to it…pitting a new market against an old one.

After the rumors about Brett Farve’s un-retirement, this market was launched:

Will Brett Favre play in the NFL in the 2008-2009 season?

“Yes – as a Packer” is trading at 29.58.

On the other hand, an older market asks:

What QB will take the first snap under center for the 2008 Green Bay Packers (regular season)?

Our man Brett trades at 4.94 in this market.

Now, if Brett returns as a Packer, one would think it would be before pre-season and that he would start the first game. Of course, he could return but get injured before the first game but I don’t think that explains a 25 Inkle difference in price. Or decide mid pre-season, but I doubt the Packers would do that to their team. Or, he might return mid-season if Rodgers falters but since the first market closes out at the beginning of the season, I doubt that is what the market creator had in mind.

No, I thing there is a 20+ Inkle lock by shorting the first market and going long the second.

I currently hold a 20 share position in both ends of this trade, unfortunately started before someone bid up Farve to 29 in the first market. If no one else close this gap by the end of the week, I will probably do so.

Enjoy.